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The Unit Energy Consumption

2013-05-15 13:13:32: 


<SPAN title=在最近闭幕的中央经济工作会议上，把节能作为明年经济工作中的重点之一，提出“推进能源资源节约，既是缓解能源资源供求矛盾的重大举措，也是从源头上减少污染、改善生态环境的 b="在最近闭幕的中央经济工作会议上，把节能作为明年经济工作中的重点之一，提出“推进能源资源节约，既是缓解能源资源供求矛盾的重大举措，也是从源头上减少污染、改善生态环境的" c='In the recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference, one of the key energy-saving as the economic work next year, that "promote the conservation of energy resources, both major initiatives to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of energy resources, but also from the source to reduce pollution, improve the ecological environment '>In the recently concluded Central Economic Work Conference, one of the key energy-saving as the economic work next year, that "promote the conservation of energy resources, both major initiatives to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of energy resources, but also from the source to reduce pollution, improve the ecological environment important way, next year is sure to achieve noticeable results. " <SPAN title=为什么在能源供应紧张情况有所缓解的形势下，中央仍如此强调要大力促进节能工作呢？ b="为什么在能源供应紧张情况有所缓解的形势下，中央仍如此强调要大力促进节能工作呢？" c="Why eased tensions in the energy supply situation, the Central is still so much emphasis on the need to vigorously promote energy conservation? ">Why eased tensions in the energy supply situation, the Central is still so much emphasis on the need to vigorously promote energy conservation? <SPAN title=这是由中国经济发展新阶段的特点和国际、国内能源的长期供求环境决定的。 b="这是由中国经济发展新阶段的特点和国际、国内能源的长期供求环境决定的。" c="This is determined by the characteristics of the new stage of China's economic development and international and domestic energy long-term supply and demand environment.

">This is determined by the characteristics of the new stage of China's economic development and international and domestic energy long-term supply and demand environment. Stage of the energy structure of the heavy chemical industry is no conversion <SPAN title=在上世纪80~90年代，中国的能源消费弹性系数平均为0.4，即GDP增长1个百分点，能源消费增长0.4个百分点。 b="在上世纪80~90年代，中国的能源消费弹性系数平均为0.4，即GDP增长1个百分点，能源消费增长0.4个百分点。" c="China's elasticity of energy consumption in the last century, 80 to 90 years, an average of 0.4, ie, GDP growth by 1 percentage point, energy consumption increased by 0.4 percentage points. ">China's elasticity of energy consumption in the last century, 80 to 90 years, an average of 0.4, ie, GDP growth by 1 percentage point, energy consumption increased by 0.4 percentage points. <SPAN title=据此中国在考虑长期发展战略的时候，曾经设想到2020年以前，能源弹性系数为0.5，但由于近年来能源的消费增长率大大超过了经济增长率，去年和前年的能源弹性系数已经分别上升 b="据此中国在考虑长期发展战略的时候，曾经设想到2020年以前，能源弹性系数为0.5，但由于近年来能源的消费增长率大大超过了经济增长率，去年和前年的能源弹性系数已经分别上升" c="Accordingly consider the long-term development strategy, had been assumed that by 2020, energy elasticity coefficient of 0.5, but in recent years, energy consumption growth rate greatly exceeds the rate of economic growth last year and the year before the energy elasticity coefficient has been increased by ">Accordingly consider the long-term development strategy, had been assumed that by 2020, energy elasticity coefficient of 0.5, but in recent years, energy consumption growth rate greatly exceeds the rate of economic growth last year and the year before the energy elasticity coefficient has been increased by to 1.32 and 1.6. <SPAN title=能源弹性系数的大幅度上升，是中国进入到重化工业阶段的标志，这一点与其他工业先行国在进入重工业阶段后的能源消费特点没有什么不同。 b="能源弹性系数的大幅度上升，是中国进入到重化工业阶段的标志，这一点与其他工业先行国在进入重工业阶段后的能源消费特点没有什么不同。" c="Energy elasticity coefficient increased significantly, China has entered into a symbol of the heavy chemical industry phase, into the heavy industry stage this first States and other industrial energy consumption characteristics is no different. ">Energy elasticity coefficient increased significantly, China has entered into a symbol of the heavy chemical industry phase, into the heavy industry stage this first States and other industrial energy consumption characteristics is no different. <SPAN title=然而，世界工业化国家的历史经验证明，在各国进入到重工业阶段后，从能源消费结构看，都出现了从以煤为主向以石油和天然气为主转变。 b="然而，世界工业化国家的历史经验证明，在各国进入到重工业阶段后，从能源消费结构看，都出现了从以煤为主向以石油和天然气为主转变。" c="However, the history of the world's industrialized countries experience has shown that countries into heavy industry stage, from the energy consumption structure, have emerged in the transition from coal to oil and gas main. ">However, the history of the world's industrialized countries experience has shown that countries into heavy industry stage, from the energy consumption structure, have emerged in the transition from coal to oil and gas main. <SPAN title=由于石油和天然气被称为“清洁能源”，热值高而有害气体排放少，虽然在进入重化工业阶段后能源消费的增长率会加速，但对环境的破坏性影响却不会随着能 b="由于石油和天然气被称为“清洁能源”，热值高而有害气体排放少，虽然在进入重化工业阶段后能源消费的增长率会加速，但对环境的破坏性影响却不会随着能" c='As oil and gas is called "clean energy", high calorific value and less harmful emissions into the stage of the heavy and chemical industries, energy consumption growth rate will accelerate, but the devastating impact on the environment but not with the can '>As oil and gas is called "clean energy", high calorific value and less harmful emissions into the stage of the heavy and chemical industries, energy consumption growth rate will accelerate, but the devastating impact on the environment but not with the can the rise in consumption has markedly increased. <SPAN title=反观中国近年来的情况，进入重工业阶段后却没有出现能源结构的转换，从石油消费在能源消费中的比重看，1999年为24.6%，2004年却下降到22.7%。 b="反观中国近年来的情况，进入重工业阶段后却没有出现能源结构的转换，从石油消费在能源消费中的比重看，1999年为24.6%，2004年却下降到22.7%。" c="Other hand, the situation in China in recent years, but not into the heavy industry phase of the conversion of the energy structure, the proportion of oil consumption in the energy consumption, 24.6% in 1999, but dropped to 22.7 percent in 2004. ">Other hand, the situation in China in recent years, but not into the heavy industry phase of the conversion of the energy structure, the proportion of oil consumption in the energy consumption, 24.6% in 1999, but dropped to 22.7 percent in 2004. <SPAN title=虽然从2000年以来原油进口量以年均15.7%的速度增长，到去年已超过1.2亿吨，但是由于同期国内原油产量的增速明显下降，石油在能源消费中的比重仍然下降了。 b="虽然从2000年以来原油进口量以年均15.7%的速度增长，到去年已超过1.2亿吨，但是由于同期国内原油产量的增速明显下降，石油在能源消费中的比重仍然下降了。" c="Since 2000, crude oil imports by 15.7% average annual growth of more than 120 million tons last year, but due to the decreased growth rate of domestic crude oil output for the same period, the proportion of oil in energy consumption is still down. ">Since 2000, crude oil imports by 15.7% average annual growth of more than 120 million tons last year, but due to the decreased growth rate of domestic crude oil output for the same period, the proportion of oil in energy consumption is still down. This reversal of the energy consumption structure is temporary or reflects a long-term trend? Environmental constraints of the international energy supply and demand <SPAN title=我认为这是个长期趋势，因为主要是两个因素将长期限制中国的能源消费结构向以石油为主转换。 b="我认为这是个长期趋势，因为主要是两个因素将长期限制中国的能源消费结构向以石油为主转换。" c="I think this is a long-term trend, because the main two factors that will limit long-term energy consumption structure of China's transition to the petroleum-based.

">I think this is a long-term trend, because the main two factors that will limit long-term energy consumption structure of China's transition to the petroleum-based. The first is the impossibility of the world's resources. <SPAN title=由于中国是一个石油资源稀缺国家，根据目前预测，中国在未来石油的年产出量只能在2亿吨左右，但是从国际比较看，在工业化完成阶段，按桶计算的石油消费量， b="由于中国是一个石油资源稀缺国家，根据目前预测，中国在未来石油的年产出量只能在2亿吨左右，但是从国际比较看，在工业化完成阶段，按桶计算的石油消费量，" c="Since China is an oil resource scarce countries, according to current forecasts, the Chinese maximum annual output of oil in the future can only be about 200 million tons, but from the international comparison, the stage of completion, calculated by barrels of oil consumption in the industrialized, ">Since China is an oil resource scarce countries, according to current forecasts, the Chinese maximum annual output of oil in the future can only be about 200 million tons, but from the international comparison, the stage of completion, calculated by barrels of oil consumption in the industrialized, <SPAN title=美国为人均28桶,日本和韩国为人均17桶,中国目前只有1.7桶，只相当于美国的十六分之一，日、韩的十分之一。 b="美国为人均28桶,日本和韩国为人均17桶,中国目前只有1.7桶，只相当于美国的十六分之一，日、韩的十分之一。" c="The United States is 28 barrels per capita, Japan and South Korea is 17 barrels per capita, China is now only 1.7 barrels equivalent to only a sixteenth of the United States, Japan, Korea tenth. ">The United States is 28 barrels per capita, Japan and South Korea is 17 barrels per capita, China is now only 1.7 barrels equivalent to only a sixteenth of the United States, Japan, Korea tenth. <SPAN title=美国世界上最浪费能源的国家，日、韩却是工业化国家中能源利用效率的国家，如果按日、韩的石油消费水平计算，到2030年中国基本上完成工业化的时候，中国的石油总 b="美国世界上最浪费能源的国家，日、韩却是工业化国家中能源利用效率的国家，如果按日、韩的石油消费水平计算，到2030年中国基本上完成工业化的时候，中国的石油总" c="The world's most wasteful energy countries, Japan and Korea are the countries with the highest efficiency of energy use in industrialized countries, if a daily basis, Korea's oil consumption level of 2030, basically complete industrialization, China's total oil ">The world's most wasteful energy countries, Japan and Korea are the countries with the highest efficiency of energy use in industrialized countries, if a daily basis, Korea's oil consumption level of 2030, basically complete industrialization, China's total oil consumption should increase to 3.6 billion tons. <SPAN title=由于中国在未来的石油产能只有2亿吨，这就意味着将有34亿吨石油需要依靠进口。 b="由于中国在未来的石油产能只有2亿吨，这就意味着将有34亿吨石油需要依靠进口。" c="China in the future of the largest oil production capacity of only 200 million tons, which means there will be 34 million tons of oil need to rely on imports. ">China in the future of the largest oil production capacity of only 200 million tons, which means there will be 34 million tons of oil need to rely on imports. <SPAN title=但是世界石油资源并不丰裕，目前每年世界全部的石油生产量约为45亿吨，其中可贸易量为22~23亿吨。 b="但是世界石油资源并不丰裕，目前每年世界全部的石油生产量约为45亿吨，其中可贸易量为22~23亿吨。" c="But the world's oil resources are not abundant, the current annual world oil production approximately 4.5 billion tons, which may trade 22 to 23 million tons. ">But the world's oil resources are not abundant, the current annual world oil production approximately 4.5 billion tons, which may trade 22 to 23 million tons. <SPAN title=当然世界石油产量和可贸易量还会增长，但是相对于中国的巨大需求来说仍是远远不够的。 b="当然世界石油产量和可贸易量还会增长，但是相对于中国的巨大需求来说仍是远远不够的。" c="Of course, the world's oil production and the volume of trade will grow, but compared to China's huge demand is still far from enough.

">Of course, the world's oil production and the volume of trade will grow, but compared to China's huge demand is still far from enough. <SPAN title=日本和韩国也没有什么石油资源，是依赖世界资源完成从以煤为主的能源结构向以石油为主转换，但他们从人口看是中小国家，人均石油进口量很高，可石油需求总量 b="日本和韩国也没有什么石油资源，是依赖世界资源完成从以煤为主的能源结构向以石油为主转换，但他们从人口看是中小国家，人均石油进口量很高，可石油需求总量" c="Japan and South Korea have no oil resources, is dependent on world resources to complete the conversion from coal-dominated energy structure to petroleum-based, but they are from the population is small and medium-sized countries, a high per capita oil imports, oil demand total ">Japan and South Korea have no oil resources, is dependent on world resources to complete the conversion from coal-dominated energy structure to petroleum-based, but they are from the population is small and medium-sized countries, a high per capita oil imports, oil demand total is not large. China is a populous country, there is no possibility to rely on the world's resources to complete this conversion. Secondly, the growth of the Chinese to import large quantities of oil can also make imported oil is severely restricted. <SPAN title=在目前的世界石油可贸易量中，超过三分之二为世界工业发达国家所占有，2004年，美国的石油进口量为6.4亿吨，欧盟为6.2亿吨，日本超过2亿吨。 b="在目前的世界石油可贸易量中，超过三分之二为世界工业发达国家所占有，2004年，美国的石油进口量为6.4亿吨，欧盟为6.2亿吨，日本超过2亿吨。" c="In the current world oil trade volume, more than two-thirds share of the world's industrial countries, in 2004, U.S. oil imports amounted to 640 million tons, 620 million tons in the EU, Japan, more than 200 million tons. ">In the current world oil trade volume, more than two-thirds share of the world's industrial countries, in 2004, U.S. oil imports amounted to 640 million tons, 620 million tons in the EU, Japan, more than 200 million tons. <SPAN title=如果中国的石油进口超过了国际石油贸易的新增量，就会影响到发达国家已经占有的国际石油贸易分额，从而引发同发达国家的石油矛盾。 b="如果中国的石油进口超过了国际石油贸易的新增量，就会影响到发达国家已经占有的国际石油贸易分额，从而引发同发达国家的石油矛盾。" c="If China's oil imports more than the new amount of the international oil trade, will affect the international oil trade, developed countries have occupied the sub-quota, giving rise to the same oil in developed countries contradiction. ">If China's oil imports more than the new amount of the international oil trade, will affect the international oil trade, developed countries have occupied the sub-quota, giving rise to the same oil in developed countries contradiction. <SPAN title=因此，中国在未来的石油进口量肯定还会上升，但是进口达到一定规模，不仅有经济的可能性问题，还有政治和外交问题。 b="因此，中国在未来的石油进口量肯定还会上升，但是进口达到一定规模，不仅有经济的可能性问题，还有政治和外交问题。" c="Therefore, China's oil imports in the future will definitely rise, but imports reached a certain size, not only the possibility of the economy, as well as political and diplomatic issues. ">Therefore, China's oil imports in the future will definitely rise, but imports reached a certain size, not only the possibility of the economy, as well as political and diplomatic issues. <SPAN title=美国自2001年以来，已经对阿富汗和伊拉克进行了军事占领，目前又在中亚一系列国家不断策动“颜色革命”，还以反海盗为名，在马六甲海峡建立了军事存在，已经可以很清楚 b="美国自2001年以来，已经对阿富汗和伊拉克进行了军事占领，目前又在中亚一系列国家不断策动“颜色革命”，还以反海盗为名，在马六甲海峡建立了军事存在，已经可以很清楚" c='The United States since 2001, has been in Afghanistan and Iraq military occupation, constantly instigated a series of countries in Central Asia "color revolutions" in the name of anti-piracy in the Malacca Strait to establish a military presence, it has become clear '>The United States since 2001, has been in Afghanistan and Iraq military occupation, constantly instigated a series of countries in Central Asia "color revolutions" in the name of anti-piracy in the Malacca Strait to establish a military presence, it has become clear to be seen, the U.S. military deployment in recent years around the Middle East and Central Asian oil resources area. <SPAN title=如果中国的石油高度依赖从这一地区进口，那么在未来的经济安全度会难以预测。 b="如果中国的石油高度依赖从这一地区进口，那么在未来的经济安全度会难以预测。" c="China's oil is highly dependent on imports from the region, so in the future economic safety would be difficult to predict.

">China's oil is highly dependent on imports from the region, so in the future economic safety would be difficult to predict. <SPAN title=所以从长期看，中国的工业化将很难实现与其他工业化国家同样的能源结构转换，由于中国的煤炭资源相对于石油来说还比较丰富，在未来发展中，中国必将更多地依靠煤炭来 b="所以从长期看，中国的工业化将很难实现与其他工业化国家同样的能源结构转换，由于中国的煤炭资源相对于石油来说还比较丰富，在未来发展中，中国必将更多地依靠煤炭来" c="Therefore, the long term, China's industrialization will be difficult to achieve with other industrialized countries, the same energy structure conversion, due to China's coal resources for oil is also relatively rich in the future development, China will rely more heavily on coal ">Therefore, the long term, China's industrialization will be difficult to achieve with other industrialized countries, the same energy structure conversion, due to China's coal resources for oil is also relatively rich in the future development, China will rely more heavily on coal <SPAN title=支持，因此煤炭在能源消费比重中的持续上升和石油消费比重的下降，将会是一个长期趋势。 b="支持，因此煤炭在能源消费比重中的持续上升和石油消费比重的下降，将会是一个长期趋势。" c="support, so the decline of the coal continued to rise in the proportion of energy consumption and oil consumption proportion will be a long-term trend.

">support, so the decline of the coal continued to rise in the proportion of energy consumption and oil consumption proportion will be a long-term trend. Energy conservation is increasingly becoming an important condition to support China's economic growth <SPAN title=如果中国在进入重工业阶段后的能源结构是以煤为主，就将面临日益艰巨的环境挑战，因为到目前为止，世界上还没有一个国家是在以煤为基础的能源结构上完成工业化的， b="如果中国在进入重工业阶段后的能源结构是以煤为主，就将面临日益艰巨的环境挑战，因为到目前为止，世界上还没有一个国家是在以煤为基础的能源结构上完成工业化的，" c="If the energy structure of China into the heavy industry stage is dominated by coal, will face an increasingly difficult environmental challenges, because so far, the world does not have a country of industrialization on the structure of the coal-based energy ">If the energy structure of China into the heavy industry stage is dominated by coal, will face an increasingly difficult environmental challenges, because so far, the world does not have a country of industrialization on the structure of the coal-based energy <SPAN title=而在目前的中国，燃煤所导致的有害气体排放，已经占到各种有害气体排放量的65%~90%，每年排放总量约8000万吨。 b="而在目前的中国，燃煤所导致的有害气体排放，已经占到各种有害气体排放量的65%~90%，每年排放总量约8000万吨。" c="harmful emissions caused in the current China, coal has accounted for a variety of harmful gas emissions 65% to 90% the total annual emissions of about 80 million tons. ">harmful emissions caused in the current China, coal has accounted for a variety of harmful gas emissions 65% to 90% the total annual emissions of about 80 million tons. <SPAN title=如果按2000年以来中国能源消费的增长率和石油消费比重下降的情况来推算，到2020年中国的能源消费总量将达到90亿吨标准煤。 b="如果按2000年以来中国能源消费的增长率和石油消费比重下降的情况来推算，到2020年中国的能源消费总量将达到90亿吨标准煤。" c="If the decline in the growth rate of China's energy consumption and the proportion of oil consumption since 2000 to projections, by 2020 China's total energy consumption will reach 90 million tons of standard coal. ">If the decline in the growth rate of China's energy consumption and the proportion of oil consumption since 2000 to projections, by 2020 China's total energy consumption will reach 90 million tons of standard coal. <SPAN title=由煤炭燃烧所排放的有害气体按目前的环保水平来推算，这当然是一个灾难性的后果。 b="由煤炭燃烧所排放的有害气体按目前的环保水平来推算，这当然是一个灾难性的后果。" c="Harmful gas emissions from coal combustion at the current level of environmental protection project, which is of course disastrous consequences.

">Harmful gas emissions from coal combustion at the current level of environmental protection project, which is of course disastrous consequences. <SPAN title=因此，节能将日益成为在有限能源资源获得下支持中国经济增长的重要条件，或者说，单位产品的能源消耗降不下来，中国的经济增长就上不去，工业化也完不成。 b="因此，节能将日益成为在有限能源资源获得下支持中国经济增长的重要条件，或者说，单位产品的能源消耗降不下来，中国的经济增长就上不去，工业化也完不成。" c="Therefore, energy conservation is increasingly becoming an important condition for the limited energy resources to support China's economic growth, or, energy consumption per unit of product do not fall down, China's economic growth would not increase, industrialization also able to fulfill. ">Therefore, energy conservation is increasingly becoming an important condition for the limited energy resources to support China's economic growth, or, energy consumption per unit of product do not fall down, China's economic growth would not increase, industrialization also able to fulfill. <SPAN title=从能源供求的长期条件看，中国的节能工作仍是极为紧迫与艰巨的。 b="从能源供求的长期条件看，中国的节能工作仍是极为紧迫与艰巨的。" c="Energy conservation in China is still extremely tight and difficult to see from the long-term energy supply and demand conditions. ">Energy conservation in China is still extremely tight and difficult to see from the long-term energy supply and demand conditions. <SPAN title=党中央提出要坚持科学发展观、要建立资源节约和环境友好型社会，在很大程度上可以说就是出于对中国能源长期供求格局及其对环境影响的判断。 b="党中央提出要坚持科学发展观、要建立资源节约和环境友好型社会，在很大程度上可以说就是出于对中国能源长期供求格局及其对环境影响的判断。" c="The CPC Central Committee proposed to adhere to the scientific concept of development, to establish a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, to a large extent can be said is for judgment on China's energy long-term supply and demand patterns and their impact on the environment. ">The CPC Central Committee proposed to adhere to the scientific concept of development, to establish a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, to a large extent can be said is for judgment on China's energy long-term supply and demand patterns and their impact on the environment. <SPAN title=党中央关于“十一五”建议，只提出了两个具体指标，就是人均GDP增长率和单位GDP产值的能源下降率，把节能问题放到了一个特殊重要的位置，明年是“十一五” b="党中央关于“十一五”建议，只提出了两个具体指标，就是人均GDP增长率和单位GDP产值的能源下降率，把节能问题放到了一个特殊重要的位置，明年是“十一五”" c='The CPC Central Committee on the recommendations of the Eleventh Five-Year only two specific indicators of the growth rate of GDP per capita and energy per unit of GDP output rate of decline in energy conservation issues into a special and important position next year is the "Eleventh Five-Year '>The CPC Central Committee on the recommendations of the Eleventh Five-Year only two specific indicators of the growth rate of GDP per capita and energy per unit of GDP output rate of decline in energy conservation issues into a special and important position next year is the "Eleventh Five-Year In the first year of energy conservation must be a good start. (The author is Deputy Secretary-General of the China Society of Macroeconomics
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